![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Loner is a very useful example for calculating extended odds, because it’s an example of how you can calculate more extended odds. It’s also a question of space here - you’re not going to need all of these numbers, so just use the math to calculate particular odds and keep them in mind. While it could be useful to have a gigantic table here, you can run the odds via simple multiplication, keeping in mind that the more actions you take, the more likely you are for something to go wrong. This can be extended as far as you need it for whatever sequence of events you have. So, for two actions, we’ll have the following table: Roll The easiest way to do this is to go back to our simple odds table and extend it out a bit. To determine the odds of two independent actions succeeding, you need to multiply the odds of each action with each other. Because of this, whenever you perform a sequence of actions, the odds start falling in a terrifying fashion and you realize why rolling a bunch of dice is always somewhat thrilling, especially when you’re aiming for an exciting play. The more dice you roll, the more likely you are to have something go horribly wrong. Now that we know how to calculate single-dice odds, let’s go deeper and look at multiple actions that need to occur during a single activation. These odds are incredibly useful when evaluating actions that you can take during a turn, especially if you’re risk-averse. Some numbers that “feel” more likely (2+ vs.Built-in re-rolls are incredibly valuable and make actions much easier.Re-rolls always increase your odds of success.So, this lets us know a couple of things: Now that you know all of these odds, you can spot some counter-intuitive trends that don’t “feel” right, but which still are accurate: Roll With that information, we can create an entirely new table to show the percentage chances of succeeding with and without rerolls: Roll Needed So, let’s see that in action in the table below: Roll Needed ![]() ***P **is the chance of the second roll succeeding.Because the success percentage and failure percentage must logically cover all outcomes, this holds (1-P) is the chance that the first roll fails.There are the straight, d6 odds that we have in the first chart. **P **is the chance that the first roll succeeds.We can express it as a simple equation: P+((1-P)*P), where P is defined as the percentage chance of success. So, how do we understand the probabilities behind re-rolling dice? Which is terrifying from a coaching standpoint.Ĭalculating odds for re-rolling dice makes things a little trickier, but also shows how having a re-roll improves your chances considerably. So, you can know that any action, even if you’re stacking all the modifiers on it, has a 17% chance of failure. However, looking at the chart, you’ll see that there’s another 1 in 6 result - the 6+ result. You’ll notice that there is no 1+ row - that’s because a roll of 1 will always fail. So, the basic odds of a single die roll are as follows: Roll Needed Seeing as - in Blood Bowl - you’re typically trying to roll one number or better. Statistical analysis is a great way to understand how risky a particular action is - Blood Bowl is, at its heart, a game of pushing your luck with tiny people on a fantasy football field.įor the purposes of this article, we’ll only look at 6-sided dice.Ĭalculating odds for a single die roll is probably the simplest thing to do. While Nuffle can be both kind and cruel, knowing the relative failure rates of all the actions your players can take is highly important to making informed decisions about risks. ![]()
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